What is WCS Predictor?WCS Predictor is a website that gives probabilites for players qualifying for Blizzcon/WCS Global Finals, along with many other statistics.
How does it work?
It works by running millions of simulations of all the tournaments using the Monte Carlo method (wikipedia link
), it makes use of Aligulac ratings to calculate expected winrates for every match that happens in each simulation. You can see details on the current simulation and the simulation being compared to by expanding the Simulaton Info section at the top of the page.
How often is this updated?Usually every day that there are WCS matches, sometimes more than once a day like during a Dreamhack or IEM. You can see the graphs to see how many points they have, that shows you how often it's updated, or just check the thread on Team Liquid.
Why does <my favorite foreigner> have lower chances than <faceless korean> even though he has more points?Usually this is due to Aligulac ratings, tournaments that they are confirmed to be attending, or even what region of WCS they play in.
Why did X Player's chances change even though they didn't play anything?Aligulac ratings, and other players doing stuff. Consider that there are 1600% chances total in the pool, so if a player loses 1% then that 1% is spread out amongst the other players.
Does 0% really mean no chance? Does 100% really mean confirmed?Pretty much, just don't get too comfortable with a 90+% chance (sOs...). Looking at the AFK Chances can also help with this, see below.
What are the AFK Chances?WCS Predictor counts how likely they are to end up with their minimum number of WCS Points, and also how many times they qualify for Blizzcon with that many points. Basically it's what their chances would be if they don't gain anymore WCS Points.
What are the Headbands?
The headbands are based on the idea of the headbands in Afro Samurai (wikipedia link to Afro Samurai plot
). There will be 4 headbands this year instead of just 2, so hopefully we'll see the #1 headband move around more. The headbands were seeded based on the results from Blizzcon, so Life started with the #1, MMA with #2, TaeJa with #3, Classic with the #4. The #1 headband can only lose their headband by losing to a player who holds one of the other headbands. The other headbands are lost when they lose to anyone. If 2 headband holders face each other then the winner takes the better headband and the loser takes the worse one. There is no functional difference between the #2/#3/#4. These are only tracked for tournaments that give WCS Points, and no qualifiers.
How can you predict DreamHack Antarctica when the player list hasn't even been announced yet?The player selection is randomized so that in some of the samples it might consider Hyun as attending, and in some other samples it might not. Tournament attendence selection is weighted towards players with Aligulac ratings over 1300.
What are the Placeholder tournaments?These are tournaments that hold the place of yet unannounced tournaments. When a new tournament gets announced it will replace one of the placeholders. These are simulated the same as a Dreamhack with an unannounced player list. This ensures that all of the WCS Points are being accounted for, and prevents giving players 0% or 100% chances prematurely.
What are events?
Events are things that can happen that help or hurt a player, for example MC winning the GSL is an event for MC, but it can also be an event for JaeDong if it is determined to have a big enough effect on him. There are also grouped events like 'MC wins his next match AND Life wins GSL' is 2 events grouped together so you can see how both things affect the player's chances.
You can see these tables on the page for each player, just click on their name. The Score column is just a score for how relevant the event is for the player, Probability is how likely the event or group of events is to occur, Events column shows what happens, Blizzcon Chances is how it affects the player's Blizzcon Chances. Notice that by default it filters for events that are simple and likely. You can use the buttons to change the filters, or type in filters manually. Mouse over the
to see the keywords for each event.
Why isn't the event for HyuN getting 8th place at <Random Tournament> listed?WCS Predictor only finds and tallies events that either have a high enough score (how much it CHANGES their Blizzcon chances combined with how likely it is), are an upcoming match, or are a 1st place.
How do you decide if a match is important or a must win for a player?Important matches just means it has a big effect on their Blizzcon Chances. Must Win means that it has a huge effect on their chances.
How can a player lose 50% Blizzcon Chances for just one match?Let's say you have 1 match that determines it all for you, you must win the match to go to Blizzcon. Maybe it's your last match, or it's just the last match that gives you enough points. If you have a 50% chance to win the match, and your chances go to 100% when you win and 0% when you lose, then your current Blizzcon chances are 50%.
What is WCS Wars?
WCS Wars is a fantasy league based on the median WCS points as determined by WCS Predictor (Wikipedia link for median). You currently start the game with 15,000 WCS Points to buy players with (this starting number will need to be adjusted depending on the season). Each player's value = median_wcs_points + base_cost, where the base_cost is currently 2000. Build a team of up to 5 players, hope that your players win to boost their Median WCS Points, and you can sell them to buy different players. Selling gives you 99% of their worth. There will be a winner each season and the teams will all be reset. Check the Leaderboard section at the bottom of the WCS Wars page!
Can I gain points in WCS Wars even if the player is already locked in for Blizzcon?
Absolutely! Since WCS Wars value is based on median WCS Points every win helps, as opposed to % Blizzcon Chances which caps out at 100%. Their value can go up from winning a match and gaining more WCS Points, being seeded/invited into a tournament, qualifying for a tournament, a strong player being knocked out, their Aligulac rating going up, even winning in an unrelated tournament could boost their Aligulac rating enough to increase their value.
What are branched simulations?
A branched simulation is when it looks at all the samples in a simulation, finds the samples it wants, and then creates a new simulation based on just those samples with all its own events and statistics.
So if I make a filter to branch for when Flash wins the first GSL of the year, in that branched simulation he will have a 100% chance to win that GSL and everyone else will have 0% chance, and Flash's Blizzcon chances and AFK Chances will be much higher. However who gets 2nd place in GSL S1 in that example branch would still be up in the air.
This will allow me to answer people much better when they ask for things like "What happens if Snute gets 4th place at Dreamhack, Classic loses his next match in GSL, Scarlett wins WCS AM with Polt getting 2nd place, and San wins WCS EU?", I will be able to run a branched simulation and give them the huge amount of stats that WCS Predictor normally gives for the current situation except with their hypothetical situation.